Monday’s scheduled report on US retail sales for April is projected to remain unchanged vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast. That compares with a 0.4% decline reported by the Census Bureau for March. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator's average projection for April is slightly above a consensus forecast based on a recent survey of economists.

Here's a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator's projections:

R-2: A linear regression model that analyzes two data series in context with retail sales: an index of weekly hours worked for production/nonsupervisory employees in private industries and the stock market (S&P 500). The historical relationship between the variables is applied to the more recently updated data to project retail sales. The computations

One way to gauge the performance of cyclicals versus non-cyclicals is to look at the ratio between the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors. In the chart below, when the line is rising, Consumer Discretionary is outperforming Consumer Staples, and when the line is falling, Consumer Staples is outperforming Consumer Discretionary. Since 1990, the ratio has hovered around one, but we've seen it get as

In 1969, I was a teenage undergrad at Cox School of Business on the Southern Methodist University campus. In Entrepreneurship 101, we had a guest speaker, the legendary restaurateur, Norman Brinker. At the time, he was not legendary, but the young owner of a diner called Brink's, located on the hip-hot apartment row in Dallas.

Mr. Brinker later became the founder of several restaurant chains that were acquired by NYSE companies, and he is the founder of Brinker International (EAT), anchored by Chili’s Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy brands. Among the wisdom that Brinker shared with the class of young entrepreneurs was that restaurant success started with knowing your market and offering delicious food. I latched on to Brinker's shooting star early, and EAT is now making all-time highs as its stock has lost no luster in 35 years.

We recently rebalanced portfolios, and found that we