US personal consumption spending for October is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, based on The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast. Today’s average projection is slightly above the previously reported 0.2% increase for September. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average 0.3% forecast for October matches the projections in three surveys of economists.
Here's a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator's estimates:
VAR-1: A vector autoregression model that analyzes the history of personal income in context with personal consumption expenditures. The forecasts are run in R with the "vars" package.
VAR-3: A vector autoregression model that analyzes three economic time series in context with personal consumption expenditures. The three additional series: US private payrolls, personal income, and industrial production. The forecasts
Walgreen Co. (WAG), the largest drugstore chain in the U.S., reported its sales figure for the month of November and Q1 2014, ending November 30. The company's revenue base had declined in fiscal 2012 as its dispute with the pharmacy benefits management company Express Scripts led to a significant loss in the number of Express Scripts' (ESRX) prescriptions filled at Walgreen stores. However, following the dispute resolution between the two companies in September 2012, Walgreen has seen its growth accelerate in subsequent months. It closed its fiscal 2013 on August 31 with $72.2 billion in sales, a 0.8% annual increase, and the growth momentum continued in September, October and November.
Quick Snap Shot Of November'13 & Q1 2014 Sales
November - Walgreen reported a 4.1% annual growth in total sales ($6.07 billion) and a 3.2% increase in comparable store sales for the month of November. Pharmacy sales, which accounted