By Sumit Roy
Precious metals outperformed, energy and grains underperformed.
Commodities saw volatile, split performance this week as precious metals rallied while other commodities plunged. Stock markets fell from record highs; the S&P 500 lost more than 1 percent, bringing its year-to-date gain down to 6.2 percent.
This week was relatively light when it came to news flow. Second-quarter corporate earnings season kicked off, but only a handful of companies reported. The pace of earnings releases will pick up in the coming weeks. Analysts expect profits for companies in the S&P 500 to have increased by 6.2 percent year-over-year in the quarter.
In central bank news, the Federal Reserve released the minutes to its June policy meeting on Wednesday. From those we learned that most Fed officials are targeting October as the month in which QE will officially end. Assuming the economy continues to recover as expected, the
Editor's note: Originally published on 1 July, 2014
Oil exports from the Middle East Gulf States amounted to 19.6 million barrels per day in 2013 [BP] equivalent to 22.6% of total global oil production and 43% of OECD oil consumption. The importance of the region to the well being of the global economy cannot be overstated. It is therefore pertinent to ask what risk ISIS presents to the stability of the region and its oil supplies. History has some clues.
The response of the oil price to “the crisis” has so far been muted. That is because, so far, oil supplies have not been put at risk. In fact, the pending independence of Iraqi Kurdistan and the opening of new export routes via Turkey has in the interim enhanced oil supplies from the region.
What happens next is of course difficult to predict. Three scenarios are envisaged that may lead