An increase in coffee or roya leaf rust in Central America has generated concerns on how it could have an effect on coffee production in the region, as well as the resultant coffee prices that may accompany any possible shortages.

It must be understood that the coffee rust problem is in relationship to Arabica coffee plants and not robusta coffee. Arabica coffee is what is usually what is offered in coffee stores. Robusta coffee is normally associated with instant coffee, although "premium robusta" can be found in specialty espresso blends at retail outlets. In this article the primary focus will be on arabica coffee.

An interesting change in the instant coffee market should provide another growth area for arabica beans, as the increasing demand for soluble coffee has resulted in businesses adding arabica beans to robusta beans to create a higher quality blend. That will boost demand for

The drought outlook for the early part of the summer shows some significant changes coming up that will influence crops (JJA, JJG).

The overall trend will be affected by a jet stream pattern that will be generally consistent with last summer's. The significant difference will be the addition of this past winter's moisture and a much more active tropical storm season across the Gulf of Mexico.

Soil moisture levels for the Ohio Valley, part of the Northeast and the mid-Mississippi Valley are forecast by the Climate Prediction Center (map, top) to remain unchanged through July. My forecast (map, right) is for moisture to be adequate through June and then dry out in July as temperatures reach above normal levels and thunderstorm activity becomes spotty.

The Gulf Coast states will experience an overall moist summer dominated by persistent tropical storm activity. The tropical season will start with a

Rural America continues to be a bright spot in an ever-dimming economic environment as the Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) and farmland price index posted above growth neutral readings. Farmers are the driving force behind the growth as 4 out of every 5 sales transactions are purchased by farmers.

The RMI increased to 58.3 from 56.9 in the March survey. "Crop farmers and businesses linked to crop farming and energy continue to experience very positive economic conditions with improving balance sheets," commented Creighton University economist Ernie Goss.

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Agriculture

The farmland price index dropped slightly from 67.2 in March to 66.9 in April but has been above growth neutral for a staggering 41 consecutive months. However, there are some negative results from the growth, "Increased agriculture land prices and rent cost are hurting our smaller operators as well as younger, beginning farmers," said David Callies, CEO of Miner County