One sample portfolio presented in Mebane Faber and Eric Richardson's book, The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear Markets, allocates equal percentages to the 20 ETFs listed on page 76. With this allocation one ends up investing the same percentage (20%) in four commodities as are assigned to U.S. equities. Is it possible to improve on the equal percentage plan and what might motivate one to make any changes?
To investigate how a portfolio would have performed during the Great Recession, I "invested" in the Ivy 20 ETFs that were available on 6/30/2007 and held them through 7/29/2014. This starting date includes the run-up before the market crashed and captures the bull market from March 2009 through the present date.
Due to data issues, I substituted the ETF WOOD for TREE.L. If an ETF did not exist on 6/30/2007, I purchased 5% on the
Editor's note: Originally published on 1 July, 2014
Oil exports from the Middle East Gulf States amounted to 19.6 million barrels per day in 2013 [BP] equivalent to 22.6% of total global oil production and 43% of OECD oil consumption. The importance of the region to the well being of the global economy cannot be overstated. It is therefore pertinent to ask what risk ISIS presents to the stability of the region and its oil supplies. History has some clues.
The response of the oil price to “the crisis” has so far been muted. That is because, so far, oil supplies have not been put at risk. In fact, the pending independence of Iraqi Kurdistan and the opening of new export routes via Turkey has in the interim enhanced oil supplies from the region.
What happens next is of course difficult to predict. Three scenarios are envisaged that may lead
Editor's note: Originally published on 27, June 2014
News broke on U.K. terrestrial television on Tuesday 24th of June that Kurdistan forces (The Peshmerga) had captured Kirkuk, a city in northern Iraq that sits on top of the supergiant Kirkuk oil field. This news broke on the WSJ days before.
John Kerry was in Kurdistan trying to persuade The Kurds to lead the way in cementing the new Iraq apparently oblivious to the fact that the Kurds have been working flat out to leave Iraq since the semi-autonomuous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was formed.
Persecuted and gassed by Saddam, Kurdistan gained semi-independence in the wake of GWI in 1992. Since then, the whole region has been licensed for oil and gas exploration to foreign oil companies. Several billions of barrels of oil have been found, a pipeline built through Turkey to the Mediterranean Port of Ceyhan and oil exports have